Let's hit the Curbs myth on the head once and for all

The myth that Alan Curbishley was pushed out by impatient fans at Charlton is one of the most persistent in football and it needs debunking: https://talksport.com/football/1759338/debunking-myths-charlton-alan-curbishley-sacked/ 

The board did not handle his departure well, and particularly his replacement by Dowie, but that is another matter altogether. 

'Jones must act fast to save Charlton'

 A young fan complained the other week that supporting Charlton involved endless suffering.   It was ever thus.  Indeed, a sports historian once told me that suffering was what football was all about.   Just read the reference in Alan Sillitoe's novels and short stories to Notts County.

I have had three periods of joy with Charlton.   The first was in the 1950s with Jimmy Seed as manager.  The second was the return to The Valley, the build up to the Premier League, the Greatest Game and Curbs as manager in the top flight.   Finally, I would add Chris Powell getting us out of League One as champions.

70 years of suffering does give you some perspective.   I don't want us to play in the fourth division for the first time, but if we have to, we will.   I still think the chances of relegation are 50/50.   There are 15 matches to go, we are not actually in a relegation position, we have a better goal difference than teams around us and we often play better in tough matches.  Having said that, as The Times put it in their headline yesterday, 'Jones must act fast to save Charlton.'

This goes beyond changing the formation.   If the players are not good enough or motivated enough, no formation will work even 1-9-1 as used by San Marino.

I know that Charlton fans like the worst case scenario so here is what a friend who went to Reading:' it is impossible to find the words to indicate realistically how awful we were against Reading.  I genuinely believe an average pub team would have beat us, we were that clueless, no movement, no skill and no ideas.  We genuinely cannot get any worse, NJ looks like he has an impossible task. I am afraid Div 2 is looking nailed on after last Saturday.'

It will be ironic if I get well enough to return to The Valley only to see us relegated.

Peter Varney has said we need to start looking at recruitment strategy now, but that is difficult when it is not certain which division we will be playing in.   Relegation would mean selling Alfie May.

I think that the club's problems are deeply rooted and structural and go beyond the failings of any one individual.   I argued this in a series of posts earlier in the season and I will consolidate them as one essay on Charlton Retro.  

What happens tonight will be crucial.

Turning the oil tanker round

It's difficult to judge the way in which Charlton fans have reacted to the appointment of Nathan Jones from comments on social media.  The loudest are not necessarily representative and even if one did a poll, it would not be based on a proper sampling frame.

Nevertheless, there seems to be more scepticism and grudging acceptance than I expected.   The fan consensus was that Appleton had to go.   At the end of the day, results matter.

Nathan Jones was well regarded by Luton fans, as the Chicago Addick has shown.  Peter Varney, who knew him, has paid him a warm tribute.   He states: 'I have worked with Nathan Jones and pleased to see he is referenced as the manager. He has a tremendous work ethic and fans should get ready for a ball of energy on the touchline. A very positive move and he will need time to impose his standards with the players he wants.'

Then we have Charlton fans grumbling because he is not a Londoner.   It doesn't matter where he comes from, it's whether he can energise the squad and getting them scoring goals and avoiding defensive howlers.   It's a big challenge.

It's a tough and vital test at Reading on Saturday, but turning the oil tanker round may not happen that quickly.   What is important is that fans, not least the devoted away fans, give him and the team unstinting support.

Ramsgate fan speaks out

There has been a long and surprising silence on the part of VOTV former editor Rick Everitt, but at last he has broken cover with an penetrating and in depth analysis of tonight's opportunity to ask questions of the three Charlton directors: https://www.votvonline.com/home/the-2023-24-blogs/9-1-24-questions-to-be-asked-about-charlton-s-future/

Whilst I recognise that the Rickster is not everyone's cup of tea, few people have as much understanding of the history of Charlton.  He asks some important questions about the plight of the club and asks fans not to be distracted by second order questions such as the price of food and drink or even new signings.

You need to read the article for yourself but here are some key points:

'The lack of any clarity about who is steering the ship and how they intend to get it to its destination, whether that is the Championship or above. Nobody in their right mind could imagine that the club can ever be financially sustainable in League One.

Now we can probably agree that competence has been in very short supply at The Valley for many years, but the idea the club can limit its operating losses in this way short of a revolution in wider football funding is pure fantasy.

One of the key drivers in Charlton’s extraordinary rise in the 1990s and 2000s was the connection between the fans and the club, up to and including the board. This was possible because supporters knew the club was open, honest and engaged with them.  That has not been true for at least a decade.'

'A club perpetually poised on the brink of crisis'

 For various reasons it has taken me some time to carefully read Michael Appleton's double page interview in Sunday's Football League Paper.  We all know from Gobby's days as manager that there is a difference between talking the talk and walking the walk.

Nevertheless, Appleton talks frankly and what he has to say shows realism and make sense.   He admits that he has made mistakes, but he is tried to learn from them.  There is something to be said for experience even if the record is mixed which is perhaps unavoidable in the lower leagues.

The FLP is rightly critical of our recent troubles:

• 'The Addicks have churned through owners and managers at a prodigious rate in recent years and appear a club perpetually poised on a brink if crisis'
• 'A youthful side - that for all its potential - looks desperately raw'
• 'Charlton have now changed manager mid-season for a fourth successive season'

Appleton says that he wants to take the club back into the Championship 'and then to be competitive there.  But for us to do that, there's a lot of work that needs to be done.  A hell of a lot.   There's stuff that needs to be sorted out and rectified before you can even think of promotion.'

'Yes, the club's got great tradition.  It's a very, very big fanbase, especially when you give them something to shout about.  But, for me, the potential of these players to improve - and fast - that was the big attraction.'

'I want to improve the intensity in the way in which we play.  That's not just out of possession, going round kicking people and getting in people's faces.  It's how we move the ball.  I want to see this team press the ball forward much more than it has done.  If you look at my previous teams, that doesn't mean going gung-ho or playing 50- and 60-yard passes straight to the striker.'

'Be positive.  Try things.  And if you make mistakes, makes sure they're positive mistakes. Don't give the ball away because you've been tentative or unsure.  Give it away because you tried to do something progressive.'

'League One is as open as it's been for a long, long time. In previous seasons there have been three or four really big clubs who've had the budgets and squads to cope with 46 games a lot better than most teams at this level.'

Appleton seems to realise that his tenure may be limited: 'If I can be the person who starts that fightback, it's not a bad legacy is it?'

Rapid managerial turnover is no panacea

Short termism is a British disease, but it is particularly acute in football.   It is driven by an over active stock market, now reinforced by the activities of hedge funds and private equity companies.  Short termism is not the only reason the UK has a chronic productivity problem. but it is certainly part of the picture.

I was struck by the following comment in the Financial Times yesterday about the success of Aldi and Lidl: 'Being private allows Aldi and Lidl to keep prying eyes at bay and not be held to ransom by shareholders if they do not meet their sales or profit forecasts.;

The chief executive of Aldi for the UK and Ireland said 'this is an absolutely tremendous strength of our business.  It means we can make very long-term decisions even when the road is bumpy.'

It's a different story in football and especially at Charlton these days.   The following edited extract from my book Political Football is relevant:

'Expectations in society generally of private or public services have increased, but this is particularly acute in the case of football where there is an immediate measure of success or failure in terms of results and tables. “It’s a results business” is one of the most familiar clichés used in relation to the game,

There has been an increase in managerial turnover. In the ten years to 31 December 2019, “103 different men have been in charge of Premier League clubs in the last 10 years, holding 153 posts between them” (Ridge 2019). Lower-league clubs are also unforgiving of managers that are perceived to be underperforming. There is often a brief improvement in performance after a manager is replaced. However, “eventually results regress to the mean” (Kuper & Szymanski 2012).

A manager’s success may well be affected by luck, such as refereeing decisions or injuries to key players. This, however, does not excuse what has often been a lack of professionalism in the recruitment process. Simon Kuper notes that in hiring managers, as a rule “research is usually hasty. A club owner rings a man’s mobile and offers him the job, typically days after sacking the previous incumbent” (Kuper 2020).

The process of recruitment is slowly becoming more professional. Jürgen Klopp was the subject of a 60-page report by Fenway Sports Group, and he was then interviewed for several hours at a New York law firm before his appointment at Liverpool. However, the Covid-19 pandemic may change the emphasis on external recruitment. Less well-financed clubs “will tend to give top jobs to internal hires with briefs to sell players and develop cheap youngsters” (Kuper 2020a).

The manager may not be as key a factor as some popular discussions of football assume, but that does not mean that they have no impact at all on performance. Examining data on managers that have been in charge for 30 games or more, which would tend to exclude the worst-performing managers, Szymanski (working with Thomas Peeters) found that about 20 per cent of a population of over 1,000 managers had a positive impact on their club that was statistically significant.

Any fan could produce a list of managers they considered to be outstanding and this is consistent with the finding that “most managers made little difference, while a few have a significant impact” (Szymanski 2015). There are exceptional managers, but there are fewer of them than is generally supposed which helps to explain why there is so much disappointment with the performance of managers. This is magnified by the perception of the manager as “some kind of dream maker, who ‘gives hope’ to fans” (Carter 2006).  [Carter writes extensively about Charlton and Jimmy Seed in particular].

Disposing of a manager can be expensive. Chelsea paid out £96 million in compensation to departing managers and their staffs in the 15 years to 2019. It cost Chelsea £23.1 million to sack the “special one” in 2007/8 and £8.3 million in 2015/16. It cost Manchester United £19.6 million to sack him in 2018/19. That’s a total bill of £51 million.    [Even at Charlton there is compensation to be paid].

'Experienced' manager takes the reins

As anticipated by the bookmakers, Michael Appleton has been appointed the new head coach at Charlton.  He took training this morning.

Appleton has been round the lower leagues and, inevitably, has a connection with Oxford United.  He tends to have relatively short tenures in managerial or coaching roles, but that fits with the new Charlton way: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Appleton

I don't see that he is a great advance on Dean Holden and the materials he will have to work with remain limited.  At least we are doing our bit to reduce unemployment in football as he has been out of work for eight months.

Of course, I wish him well and hope that he proves me wrong.  I am generally a glass half full person, but I have rarely been so ;pessimistic about the state of the club.   Perhaps things can only get better.

BTW, Lee Bowyer is now coaching Montserrat.