Richard Cawley writes in the public domain: ‘The Addicks were eight points clear of danger after Saturday’s narrow victory over Oxford United. It felt like a substantial buffer.
But that security felt a whole lot less secure last night
following a 1-0 defeat at Norwich City. Results elsewhere cut the gap back to
five points ahead of Monday’s portentous-looking trip to Portsmouth.
Charlton really, really need their excellent record at
Fratton Park to continue. They are unbeaten in their previous eight visits,
winning seven of them. The last reverse there came in the Premier League in
April 2005.
Those December 29 fixtures are likely to give the bottom of
the table another shake up.’
My record at predicting results is poor. However, fans in general are susceptible to three types of prediction bias:
- 1. Reading results off the table – the nost common form of bias, assuming that 4th has to beat 18th (the form table can be a useful corrective).
- 2. Reading a result off the last one, although positive and negative momentum can play their part – it is a confidence game in some respects.
- 3. Reading a result off our record against a particular club. Portsmouth is a classic case; we have done very well at Fratton Park. But it was a really dismal performance yesterday. Ex Leamington ace Colby Bishop has scored just once this season, but could he find his shooting boots against us?
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