Is my glass emptying?

I am a glass half full guy, but sluggish performances by Charlton in the last two home games have been concerning.

One of my Valley friends who is not a professional moaner messaged me: '.I am getting concerned. Creating chances but not taking them will relegate us. I am sure players are confident and would say we cannot be dropped but no matter if they don’t score the team and club will suffer.'

I have always thought the chances of survival were 50/50 because we have one of the smallest playing budgets in the division.   Measuring this metric is not straightforward as what does one count?   Physios and the medical team, certainly.  The staff who prepare and serve the players' meals?   Probably.

In any event one can fit a simple two variable linear regression model to the relationship between playing budget and on pitch performance.  One doesn't even need to do any data transformations such as the logarithmic and certainly there is no need for curvilinear models of the kind used in econometrics.

Of course, there are always outliers, teams that over perform or under perform.   In the latter case this season think Tottenham Hotspur and for the former perhaps Brentford.   They are what make football interesting, but the overall model is robust.  Money talks.

Richard Cawley tries to steady the reds: 'Emotions are always high after a defeat and also the sense of foreboding. But how much trouble are Charlton in as they get ready to head to already-relegated Wednesday this weekend?

The gap to the bottom three has been trimmed to five points but Opta Analyst puts the chances of an Addicks relegation at just 3.16 per cent. Contrast that with Leicester City (86.44), Oxford United (52.52) and Portsmouth (28.92). Those latter two won at the weekend. West Brom (18.38) and Blackburn (10.58) are also below Charlton in the table.'

The fixture away to the Massives bothers me as they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  I also remember them sending us down after our first stay in the Premier League.

West Bromwich Albion have been charged with a breach of financial rules, but it is not clear when any penalties would apply.