Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Shelvey's Arabian dream

Jonjo Shelvey started his career at Cbarlton, but now he is heading to the UAE to manage third tier minnows, the Arabian Falcons: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/clyjj2pjdypo

It is no clear whether falconry instruction comes as part of the package.

Tuesday, 14 April 2026

Tonight's results

Portsmouth had a surprise victory over Ipswich tonight with former Leamington ace Colby Bishop scoring the second goal.   Pompey are now just one point behind Charlton.

However, Blackburn lost, have now played one more game and have an inferior goal difference.

Addicks swoop for Dorking starlet

The official statement from Dorking Wanderers about the signing of Josh Herbert for Charlton: https://dwfc.co.uk/2026/04/joshua-hebert-signs-professional-deal-with-charlton-athletic/

A number of other EFL clubs were interested including Millwall, but Herbert has been training with Charlton.   His grandfather made one appearance for the Addicks - see Richard Cawley's Substack for the full story.

I still regret that Charlton weren't prepared to pay £10k for Colby Bishop from Leamington.  Accrington signed him and he is now playing for Portsmouth (and scoring against us).

Baggies deny rules breach

West Bromwich Albion are facing a possible points deduction after being charged with an alleged breach of the EFL’s Profit and Sustainability  (P&S) regulations.  The charge relates to the three years ending with the 2024-25 season, with Championship clubs allowed to lose £41.5million ($56m) over that period.

According to the club accounts posted on Companies’ House, West Brom lost £7.6m in 2022-23, £37.6m in 23-24, and £18.8m in 24-25, amounting to a pre-tax loss of £64m.

P&S allows exclusions from this total for “healthy” expenses, such as long-term infrastructure or community projects, which can be added back from the loss calculation.  This includes the Category One academy, which costs the club several million pounds per season in operating costs. Accounting for these exclusions, the breach is thought to be marginal.

Under the EFL’s regulations, sporting penalties from the previous term must be applied in the following term, suggesting any potential points deduction will be taken from this season’s total.

The EFL’s base punishment for a P&S breach is 12 points, but it is softened based on the severity. For example, the deduction is reduced to three points if the breach is less than £2m, four points if between £2 and £4m, up to 12 points if the breach is greater than £15m.

There can also be further deductions from the base 12-point penalty if the loss in the final season is less than the season before. In West Brom’s case, their losses halved in 24-25 compared to the 23-24 term, the second of the three seaso period in question. The EFL Board can also request up to an additional nine-point penalty for “any aggravating factors and any other penalty it feels appropriate”.

West Brom released a statement in response to reports of the charge on Monday afternoon.    The statement reads: “The club considers that it has fully complied with the P&S rules. The club will continue to co-operate with the EFL’s Club Financial Reporting Unit and looks forward to resolving this matter.”

Bilkul Football WBA, a company owned by American businessman Shilen Patel, completed a takeover of the West Midlands club in February 2024 from Chinese businessman Lai Guochuan.

West Brom have been operating under an EFL “business plan” that limited their football spending during the period under scrutiny, which further complicates the assessment of their case. The charge follows West Brom posting their financial figures for the 2024-25 season, although industry experts calculate that any infringement, should the charge be proven, would be a “small breach”.

According to the EFL’s financial rules any sporting punishment, such as a points deduction, must be applied the season after the breach — which would mean this season in West Brom’s case — but time is now running out, with only four games remaining in the 2025-26 campaign. A transfer embargo and/or a fine are also potential punishments.

Any club handed a so-called “sporting sanction” has a period of ten working days to lodge an appeal, which would take any final decision well into the close season. But the EFL does not publish its fixtures until June 25, raising the theoretical prospect of West Brom surviving relegation, only to be demoted retrospectively should they be found guilty and handed a points deduction.

West Brom will have 14 days to respond from the date of the official charge. The EFL regular season ends in 19 days’ time, on May 2, which may help West Brom argue that any points deduction should be deferred.

Football finance guru Kieran Maguire calculates that, when mitigating factors such as infrastructure and academy costs are factored in, West Brom’s declared loss will be about £42.6million — approximately £1.1million more than is allowable.

I doubt whether this matter will be resolved this season and any points deduction is likely to occur next season.

 

Monday, 13 April 2026

Is my glass emptying?

I am a glass half full guy, but sluggish performances by Charlton in the last two home games have been concerning.

One of my Valley friends who is not a professional moaner messaged me: '.I am getting concerned. Creating chances but not taking them will relegate us. I am sure players are confident and would say we cannot be dropped but no matter if they don’t score the team and club will suffer.'

I have always thought the chances of survival were 50/50 because we have one of the smallest playing budgets in the division.   Measuring this metric is not straightforward as what does one count?   Physios and the medical team, certainly.  The staff who prepare and serve the players' meals?   Probably.

In any event one can fit a simple two variable linear regression model to the relationship between playing budget and on pitch performance.  One doesn't even need to do any data transformations such as the logarithmic and certainly there is no need for curvilinear models of the kind used in econometrics.

Of course, there are always outliers, teams that over perform or under perform.   In the latter case this season think Tottenham Hotspur and for the former perhaps Brentford.   They are what make football interesting, but the overall model is robust.  Money talks.

Richard Cawley tries to steady the reds: 'Emotions are always high after a defeat and also the sense of foreboding. But how much trouble are Charlton in as they get ready to head to already-relegated Wednesday this weekend?

The gap to the bottom three has been trimmed to five points but Opta Analyst puts the chances of an Addicks relegation at just 3.16 per cent. Contrast that with Leicester City (86.44), Oxford United (52.52) and Portsmouth (28.92). Those latter two won at the weekend. West Brom (18.38) and Blackburn (10.58) are also below Charlton in the table.'

The fixture away to the Massives bothers me as they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  I also remember them sending us down after our first stay in the Premier League.

West Bromwich Albion have been charged with a breach of financial rules, but it is not clear when any penalties would apply.

Saturday, 11 April 2026

One goal is not enough

Faced with the challenge of scoring a second goal, Charlton went down 1-2 to Preston at The Valley this afternoon.   Charlton stay 18th, but are just five points above Oxford in the first relegation position.

After he had hit the woodwork from a Tyreece Campbell cross, the returning Joe Rankin-Costello put the Addicks ahead on 18 minutes.   He finished on the volley after Carey's long throw was flicked in off a Preston defender's head.

Charlton's lead did not last long.  Villa loanee Lewis Dobbin put a looping header over Mannion on 25 minutes.

On the half hour mark, Mannion had to save from Devine, attempting to score from a tight angle.

As Preston threatened again as half time approached, Brad Pitts sliced wide from a good position.

Charlton were retreating a lot in the first phase of the second half and Fullah and Goddard were brought on to liven things up with Rankin-Costello and Chambers going off.

Charlton pushed on in an attempt to score, but opened up a glaring gap, enabling Potts to score for the visitors on 65 minutes.

The game went a bit flat.  Campbell was taken off and replaced by Miles Leaburn.

Carey went off for Berry as the end of normal time approached.

With seven minutes added on Charlton applied some pressure but a great block from Gibson denied Dykes a scoring opportunity,

Concerned supremo Nathan Jones told the BBC: .We started really well, got the goal and had a number of chances to get further ahead. But we switched off and lost shape at a set play and they scored from it. They started the second half better and we're lethargic and they score after we give the ball away.

'Then we throw everything at them and have a number of chances and can't score which is pretty much what has been happening.  The home form is concerning. My worry is that for all our play we don't have the conversion rate we need to win games. we had a number of chances today but cannot score.'

Friday, 10 April 2026

The 'Preston Plumber'

Preston North End are the very definition of a mid-table Championship club and that's where they are ahead of tomorrow's fixture, just above us in the table: https://footballeconomyv2.blogspot.com/2024/12/preston-need-to-do-better-but-few-signs.html

When I first started supporting Charlton in the 1950s, a visit by Preston was the cause of some excitement as one of their players was Tom Finney, the so-called 'Preston Plumber' because of the plumbing business he ran on the side and eventually retired to.

I'm not sure that I ever saw Finney as in my first year of support we played on a Thursday and the following year he was in an England v. Scotland game.  Finney was a versatile attacking player who could operate as centre forward or on either wing.

Preston were once known as the 'Invincibles' as they dominated the Football League when it was first founded, becoming the first team to win the 'double'.  I visited the football museum when it was originally located there before it moved to Manchester.

At the beginning of the season I forecast this game as a 2-2  and I will stick to that prediction.  They are the away draw specialists of the Championship, having drawn nine games on the road.

Preston had a strong start to the season but one win in 12 league matches between mid-January and mid-March derailed their play-off prospects.  They are now third from bottom in the form table.

They head to the Valley unbeaten in three, taking five points from a possible nine. It will be their first visit to SE7 since November 2019, Paul Gallagher scoring in a 1-0 win.

“They have been a Championship side for as long as my memory goes back,” Nathan Jones told Richard Cawley. “They are a really good Championship side. They recruit well and are very structured in what they do. They have been able to build on a solid foundation for years and years - I remember Alex Neil’s Preston with the players they had like Gallagher, Ben Pearson and Daniel Johnson.

“They either nearly, or did, get to the play-offs. They have been that type of side that has been a really good Championship side for years and they continue to do that.

Getting his excuses in early, Jones said: “They are a very tough test, are very experienced and have threats in certain areas. It is another difficult Championship test.”

Manager Paul Heckingbottom has condemned racial abuse directed at former Addick Thierry Small: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c4g89jkwp1vo

The Preston supremo is also expecting a 'tough contest in SE7: https://www.pnefc.net/news/2026/april/09/-long-may-it-continue----hecky-previews-gentry-day-at-charlton/

Charlton fans should be aware that 'Gentry Day' is when Preston fans commemorate fellow fans who have passed away.

According to CAS Trust, Preston rely on crosses to create many of their chances: https://www.castrust.org/2026/04/the-gentlemen-of-preston/