How many points would offer safety?

Following yesterday's results, Charlton are 14th yet only three points above the last relegation place. 19th to 22nd are all on 47 points and three points cover eight teams. Moreover, the spread between the top team just below the play off places and the relegation zone is just 12 points.

At the end of March 2012 there were four teams with less than 40 points with Doncaster Rovers on 32. 47 points would have given you 17th place (occupied by Peterborough United). The spread from the relegation places to 7th was 25 points. It's clearly a very evenly balanced competition this season.

Writing in the last Voice of the Valley Rick Everitt commented, 'Although 50 points is often quoted as the benchmark for safety from relegation, the average points score of the third from bottom Championship team over the last 20 years has been 47, making 48 the minimun safe tally for survival in a typical season. Admittedly that is slightly distorted by Portsmouth, who had 10 points deducted last season, but even if that had not happend Barnsley would have gone down on 48, and the average isn't significantly affected.'

The Rickster continued, 'No side in the last two decades has gone down with more than 52 points, although Leicester City and Millwall had the misfortune to be relegated with precisely that haul in 2008 and 1996 respectively.' Among the teams that have gone down in 22nd place since 1992 are Birmingham City, Leicester City and Manchester City. It was a massive shock to discover that Sheffield Wednesday had gone down twice.

It is probably worth noting that there are ten teams below us and it is unlikely that they will go on winning every game. My original prediction on CAFC Picks for this season was 57 points. That is achievable and should see us safe. Indeed, another win and another draw would probably do it.

As it so happens, in League 2 17th to 24th is covered by four points and the bottom team already has more points than the teams relegated last year.

Relegation fodder

It is often said that any team facing a relegation threat needs to focus on its own results and not worry about those of others. That's good advice, particularly when Charlton are facing two tough matches. However, given the pessimism that afflicts fans about their own teams, there is a risk of thinking that every team below you is invincible and will win all their remaining matches, leaving aside that some of those matches will be against other relegation threatened teams.

It's not a level playing field in the Championship because many teams either have parachute payments, becoming even more generous from next year, or wealthy owners ready to splash the cash on the Cardiff Red Dragons etc. Parachute payments were originally intended to ease the transition from a higher level, although most teams now include relegation clauses in players' contracts. However, their size and duration is now such that they have a distorting effort, creating two categories of team in the Championship, those competing for the top flight and those seeking to keep away from the dreary confines of League 1.

So what of of some of the other teams looking over their shoulder? Huddersfield are one place below us but are 8th in the form table, whereas we are 17th (which could be our final position). Blackpool, one place below us in the form table and two in the actual table, could be in some risk. They have faced managerial upheaval and I am not convinced that Paul Ince is the man to get them out of trouble. Indeed, after the 0-1 home defeat to Peterborough, Ince admitted they are in a battle to avoid the drop.

Ipswich did manage to beat Bolton 1-0 in their last game. They have not been firing on all cylinders all season. I would be surprised if they were relegated, but they could finish below us. Blackburn are bottom of the table and their troubles have been well advertised. Their fans fear a second relegation in a row and one can see why. Whether 'global adviser' Shebby Singh can pull them around remains to be seen, but somehow I think that the end of season chicken barbecue will be marked by relief at escaping the drop.

Dave Flitcroft has won 10 games out of 16 since he took over at Barnsley and they are now 7th in the form table. Just below them in the real table are Sheffield Wednesday who are in the 'too big to go down' category and probably they are. Milan Mandaric is not without resources, but even his funds are dwarfed by some of the money available in Premiership 2.

Peterborough keep plugging away and they have soared up the form table. But I still have doubts about whether they can survive. As for Wolves, it seems to me that their season shows that constant changes of manager do not bring success, although some singularly odd choices have been made at Molineux. If they had kept Mick McCarthy, they might have been in contention for promotion.

As for Bristol City, Stephen Hargreaves is a wealthy man, having set up fund supermarket Hargreaves Lansdown with his business partner. However, there are limits to his wealth and when you take account of his interests in egg chasing and the difficulty encountered in finding a new home for City, one suspects that they may not escape relegation.

The next five matches look tough and a lot may depend on the last three. I can remember Wolves at home being vital before and it may just be a match we can win at home. Steve Gibson has to pay a £1m a month to keep Middlesbrough afloat and it isn't looking as if they are going to make the play offs. So mid-table mediocrity may be their lot by the end of the season, giving Charlton a chance to display their away skills. I just hope it doesn't all come down to Bristol City at home, as one can imagine a scenario where Bristol City have already been relegated and we need to beat them to be sure of staying up. Such challenges have not been unknown in Charlton's history. If you support the Addicks, it is a roller coaster ride.

Sky Blues look for the usual three easy points

Welsh windbag Chris Coleman has set mid-table Coventry City an ambitious points total for the rest of the season as a launch pad for an assault on the Premiership in 2009-10. The plan went a bit wrong with Saturday's 4-0 defeat at Plymouth (apparently Sky Blues were guilty of 'sluggish defending'), but three easy points are thought to be available against 'doomed' Charlton: Sky Blues

Of course, Charlton have enjoyed a 'run' of three games without defeat and it is by no means certain that they will roll over at the Ricoh this afternoon. Coventry must madden their few remaining fans who rattle around in the excellent but cavernous Ricoh with their inconsistency. They can turn it on, but equally they can fall apart.

I know quite a few Sky Blues who have got fed up and turned to the ice hockey with Coventry Blaze (who also conveniently have sky blue colours). Unfortunately, Blaze had a faltering end to their season with the Elite League championship and play offs taken by the Sheffield Steelers. The Elite League is having difficulty in getting ten teams to play next season because of financial problems. At one time there was a team playing at the London Arena which was promoted at The Valley, but the only team in vaguely Charlton territory now are wooden spooners Basingstoke Bisons.

Lazy journalists read all results involving Charlton off the table, but I am going for a 2-1 victory over Coventry City, thus evading the humiliation of being relegated at the Ricoh.

Pulsating goalless draw gives hope

Blues fans were reported to be 'disgruntled' after their team failed to pick up the expected three easy points at The Valley yesterday at what was described as 'rock bottom' Charlton. Rock bottom we may be, but we also showed that we can be rock hard. The media was quick to point out that we could be relegated on Monday, but this performance gave more hope for next season, although many of the key players that contributed to it could disappear. But at least there was commitment, passion and quite a lot of skill.

We could have come away with all three points as video evidence showed that Darren Ward's second half goal, disallowed for offside by the preposterous East Stand linesman, was in fact onside.

The first half was not very inspiring as a spectacle. Both sides seemed tentative in their approach and if the Blues are going to be a Premiership side, they are going to need a lot of strengthening. Elliot came out dangerously early in the game and the ball had to be cleared off the line. There were a few defensive howlers and at times the midfield seemed to dissolve into thin air. It was not really clear what our game plan was, although the formation was 4-5-1 with Shelvey given a roving role which he undertook with great enthusiasm.

Shelvey put a speculative spot over the bar, but our best moment came around the half hour mark when we had two players in the box and only one defender, but neither of them was willing to take responsibility and score.

Nicky Bailey picked up a yellow card for a soft challenge and Lee Probert's decision-making sometimes led one to wonder if his house is painted blue. Much of the entertainment in the first half was provided by opportunities to boo the returning Bouazza, enhanced by the fact that the Blues won a number of corners in front of the Covered End.

Half time: Addicks 0, Small Heath 0

The Blues came out early for a special warm up, but it does not seem to have done them much good and Charlton began to show more confidence. In particular, Lloyd Sam, who had had a disappointing first half, started to threaten down the right. Blues owed a debt to their goalkeeper Mark Taylor who pushed one effort from the rampaging Sam on to the post.

Blues brought on Kevin Phillips on 49 minutes and he invariably manages to score against us, but not on this occasion. When Marcus Bent joined the Blues, he was treated as a saviour, but the reception from tbe visiting fans when he came on on 59 minutes was less than enthusiastic, while the Addickted were given the opportunity to express their opinions about his half hearted efforts for them.

Dickson was brought on on 79 minutes, switching us to 4-4-2 and there was a view that we should have done that earlier. However, he was not really able to outfox the Blues defence.

Zheng Zhi had a chance to score a winner in the dying minutes of the game, but scuffed his shot. Phil Parkinson commented afterwards, 'If we had that team out there earlier in the season we'd be nowhere near the bottom.' Maybe, but they also seemed to play as a more of a team yesterday. Let's hope we can keep enough of them together to make a go of it in League 1. I left the ground today feeling more optimistic than I have for a long time.

Elsewhere, Leamington won 1-0 at Marlow to keep the BGB Midlands Division title in their sights.

Match analysis

Ivy the Terrible decided to award the Silver Bone to Rob Elliot for two great saves which kept Charlton in the game. Butterfield was generally very effective today. Ward did the business and was unfortunate to see his goal disallowed. Hudson was authoritative and made some great defensive headers. Youga had some moments of real skill, setting up some of the attacks, but at other times he made some howlers. Sam can show real skill when he wants to, but at other times he lacks pace. Whether Bailey was playing in his best position is a matter for debate, but no one can doubt his commitment. Zhi showed real energy and became a greater influence in the game as it went on. Racon was rather disappointing compared to earlier performances and was withdrawn on 79 minutes.
Shelvey was a candidate for the Silver Bone. He showed real energy and skill. Let's hope we can keep him next season. Kandol can hold the ball up quite well, but he never looked like scoring. Dickson tried hard when he came on and could have scored but for some heroics by Taylor. Perhaps his best will be good enough in League 1. Our secret weapon Ambrose arrived in time added on and nearly gave the game away. Seconds after arriving on the pitch he gave away an unnecessary free kick and then he surrended possession.

Hiss of the Match Our feline analyst Juneau the Soccer Cat thought that Alex McLeish made a complete exhibition of himself on the touchline, but gave the Hiss to the overweight and balding East Stand linesman who we have seen before and managed to deny us a goal.

Crowd rating The attendance was probably more around 16,000 than the recorded 20,022, but the Addickted were in good heart and warmly applauded the team at the end. 7/10.