Friday 8 February 2008

A crucial game - but not a decisive one

Last weekend wasn't the best one. Charlton lost 1-0 at Scunthorpe while I went to watch what the Leamington website accurately described as a 'bore draw in the Cotswolds'. A company in which I am heavily invested lost 20 per cent of its value in one day on Friday.

Which gives me a theme for this piece. The shares went down despite a 17 per cent increase in like-for-like sales because the company said it was finding it difficult to pass on raw material price increases, but nevertheless thought that the overall effect on margins would be neutral.

So the stock market behaved with irrational pessimism, just as it sometimes behaves with irrational exuberance. The same could also be said of football fans. Some writing on tonight's game seems to imply that it will determine our season. Palace are, of course, promotion rivals.

However, remember that this is a league in which any team can beat any other team - and does. Just compare the points spread for the four divisions:

Premiership: 51 (with four fewer teams)
Championship: 27
League 1: 39
League 2: 39

Some people consider that a failure to win would fatally deflate the team's confidence. But we have to remember that this is a game that means a lot more to the fans than the players.

Various blogs have been rehearsing reasons for disliking the Glaziers this week. I think the two main ones are our treatment at Selhurst and the perception over there that we should be grateful for it and the recent conduct of the Orange One.

I would add something which no other blog has mentioned and which for me brings home why the Nigels and Nigellas don't just get it. The silver salver spoof yesterday was very funny and one or two of the more intellectually challenged Glaziers actually believed it for a minute or two.

But then the reaction of one of them was 'Where did the pikeys steal the silver salver?' I can understand the Spanners calling us anoraks or trainspotters. But pikeys? The median Charlton fan undoubtedly has an income below that of the average United or Gooner fan, but is still quite prosperous. A typical Charlton fan would have a middle management function in IT and live in Maidstone.

So to the match. Smoke signals from Sparrows Lane suggest that Iwelumo will start up front, but who will partner him? Reviews of Gray seem to be lukewarm so far and this may be an occasion for the pace of Varney.

With Cook out injured, the midfield remains a problem. Zheng Zhi is jetting back from his goal scoring feats in Dubai. He has not been at his best in recent matches, even without jet lag. Nevertheless, my hunch is that he will score tonight. Holland has to be included because of the determination he brings to the midfield and the way he discharges his role as captain.

Thomas and Sam often flatter to deceive on the wings. Their crosses and/or their final ball often disappoints after good approach work. Nevertheless, I would not put Ambrose on the wing. If he can play well anywhere, it is in the centre, although flashes of excellence are offset by many poor efforts. Also, can we please try and find someone who can take a decent corner? The ones at Leamington are better.

Youga's place on the left is assured and although Bougherra does make the occasional error, he does not make them as often as Fortune. McCarthy apparently disappointed at Scunthorpe, but I would stick with him rather than experimenting with Monteiro.

At right back, it looks as if Moutaoukil will be replaced by Halford and his killer throw ins. Many Charlton fans advocate playing as many youngsters as possible, but lack of experience does have a price as was evident with Moutaoukil at Scunthorpe.

Weaver in goal, of course. Bench: Randolph; McLeod; Ambrose; Semedo; Moutaoukil.

It seems to me that the most likely outcome in a match of this kind is a draw and I am going for a 2-2.

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