It seems to me that the club is in a bad a way as it has been since the return to The Valley. An underlying fundamental factor is the lack of money which will get even worse next year without any parachute payments (I am working on the reasonable assumption that we won't be promoted).
It would be unreasonable to expect the directors to dip into their pockets any more than they have. And if a foreign investor of the right calibre and with sufficient dosh was going to turn up at The Valley, they would have done so by now (although, in the longer run, I do not think that all hope is lost with the owners of the Dome).
Then we have not so super Alan Pardew. I was pleased by his appointment, so that's something I got wrong. It seems to me that he has lost the plot, if he ever found it in the first place. One of the characteristics of our Premiership promotion push was that we had a reasonably settled side, barring injuries and suspensions. And, although the likes of Gary Nelson might describe themselves self deprecatingly as journeymen they were good, honest footballers.
Pards says he is going to make two or three changes for Saturday. One would be filled by more confidence by these moves if one felt that he knew what was wrong with the team and how he would remedy it. But that confidence is not there and the confidence of the team as a whole must be sapped by the run of results. Even if we go ahead tomorrow, I have no confidence that we will stay ahead. Remember that this is a team that has won only 9 out of 34 Championship matches.
Once again there are injury worries for Saturday. Primus is highly doubtful with a back injury. (Since writing this piece I have learnt that Primus may well be fit after all, so less juggling may be needed than I feared). Youga at the left can be very erratic: he often gets forward well, but is not reliable defensively. There may be a case for Basey there, although I am not sure about that.
In midfield, if Zheng Zhi is fully fit, he would certainly add something and it would have to be at the expense of Holland who gives his all, but is beginning to show his age. Despite a somewhat disappointing performance last Saturday, I would keep Bailey. By some accounts, Bouazza was our best player at Palace. Sam is inconsistent and Varney on the wing is always an option with Gray and Todorov up front. But I expect it will be Gray and Varney.
Ipswich come into the game off a 3-0 win against an admittedly struggling Barnsley. Super Kevin Lisbie will be keen to show again what we are missing. Lisbie's career at The Valley was blighted by illness and injury. He could score some great match winning goals (not least one at Ipswich) but he could also miss the simplest of tap ins. It was the right decision for the club and the player to let him go.
I could save myself a journey to London and go and see Leamington play Chesham United where the odds must be on a win given their 100 per cent league record. But, of course, I will be at The Valley. Will my spirits be lifted by a win? Yes, because it will take us away from the relegation zone. But I don't think it would indicate that the fundamental problems have been solved. What is clear is that Pardew is here to stay for some time, unless he goes of his own accord.
I know it sounds crazy, but I am going for a 2-1 win against the Tractors. And, although I think we will have a lower mid-table finish, I do not think we will be playing in League 1 next season.
When O'Leary left Villa, Pardew made one of his best investments by buying his great big book of excuses off him. It will be interesting to see what he says in the programme tomorrow. Meanwhile, for a preview of Pardew's new look team go here:
Tinkerman
5 comments:
Excellent summary, I felt Basey linked better with Bouzza and put betters balls into the box. Yassin hasn't really had much of a run, but I've liked his pacey overlaps with Sam. I like Semedo but not sure where'd we'd play him. Cranie moving to full back seems sensible.
Perhaps Holland and Bailey are too similar and one of them needs to be on the bench, possibly Holland.
APs results have not been good, he has had sometime to sort things out and hasn't, it is his job to inspire and motivate the team and even when ahead they look edgy and unconfident.
I have to say that I agree with this rather downbeat piece. I was also pleased when Pardew was appointed and can't help liking him even now. If I were being generous, I'd say he has been unlucky in a number of ways, both on and off the pitch, but there is no doubt that his stock has fallen sharply.
He hasn't bought well and that has surprised me more than anything else. Weaver, Hudson and perhaps Bailey appear to have been very good signings, but not one of his more speculative buys, Yassin, Racon, Varney (given the price), McCleod etc have come off, as yet anyway. Gray was bad business too; Wolves bought Ebanks Blake for the same price in the same transfer window and this comparison cruelly illustrates Pardew's failure to pick winners. If lack of success in the transfer market is the biggest surprise, given his reputation, then Pardew's lack of tactical savoir faire is the biggest disapppointment. He really doesn't inspire confidence. Last January, after the Cup game against West Brom I think, he optimistically announced "We had real pace today. I like my teams to have pace". Terrific I thought. Then the next thing we know McCleod is out on loan and Yassin is back in the stiffs. The performance against Reading was the best of the season (by miles) and amongst the very best we've seen during Pardew's time at the club and yet the two full backs in that game, both of whom made important contributions to the balance of the side, are playing second fiddle to players who are not obviously better and who have most certainly been part of a team that has looked much less fluent and effective. I really don't believe he is thinking straight. I guess it is possible that when Cranie was signed (in part as cover?) the deal was (i.e. the price paid was) that he had to play. If true, it was a dumb deal and so short sighted. Talking of dumb strategy, what about Racon last season? He festered in the wilderness for months and then went out on loan right at the end of the season, impressing all who saw him. Why on earth didn't he go out sooner? Inexplicable. I could go on...but shouldn't. I know I'm way too analytical, but once you've made the mistake of thinking carefully about what Pardew says and what he does, week to week and month to month, it is very hard to believe he'll get it right because his strategy, insofar as he has one, just isn't coherent.
We'll simply need to get lucky to succeed. If we are unlucky, we could slip to Division 1 I fear.
Why when he identified the weakness in midfield once Reid went was it not rectified?The man talks in riddles.
Just my opinion, but I have always thought Pards was a bit thick. This is not necessary the end of the world, as football is a simple game and if thick managers addopt a simple consistant set of tactics they can be pretty successful. But if you are going to change the shape of your team every week, you need to be pretty smart to work out what will and wont work. Pards isnt smart enough to do this. Nor is he smart enough to constantly shuffle and change his squad with new players without a clear idea of a set line up and tactics he is looking for. Result we offload players for very little and bring in the same or worse for lots of money, and never settle on who is good enough and which key positions need strengthening.
This could change, he could settle down and if it does he probably is only a couple of positions away from a decent side, as I do think he has some eye for a player. I thought at the start of the season this would happen through lack of cash, but the loan system allows managers like pards to keep swapping simular level players around and destroying team spirit and consistency.
Lets hope it happens, if not I dont think we will go down but we will continue to be frustrating to watch. If it does we might still touch the play offs.
I think that for a long time now going back to Curbs days we have generally played with two wingers in midfield who whilst they may track back and mark a player how often do you see the likes of Sam or Bouazza or(Thomas or Rommedahl before) make a tackle in front of the defence and so the emphasis is on the likes of Bailey and Holland to do all the work.If one of them is having an off day were fighting a losing battle to start with.
It may work for the odd game Like Reading but in the Championship I believe we need more balance in the midfield.
I know that there is little or no money around but there must be more players at League 1 level of Bailey's stsandard at least he shows ability desire and commitment.
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